Latest Poll Results from 21 Research Center: Tisza Party Nears Two-Thirds
In the final days leading up to the elections, the 21 Research Center conducted a public opinion poll commissioned by Telex. Conducted between April 8 and April 11, the survey utilized a hybrid SMS method, targeting voters with Hungarian residency. The methodology included phone interviews for participants aged over 65. Notably, excluded from the survey were voters submitting ballots by mail, which affects specific demographics such as ethnic Hungarians in Romania and Serbia, who do not have individual electoral rights.
The findings indicate that the Tisza Party could secure approximately 55% of the votes, while Fidesz is projected to receive about 38%. This significant 17 percentage point gap exceeds any previous measurements by the 21 Research Center. A prior survey conducted at the end of March had reported a 16-point margin.
Further breakdown shows that Mi Hazánk is expected to garner around 5%, with the Democratic Coalition (DK) and the Two-Tailed Dog Party (MKKP) at around 1% each. The research suggests that while Mi Hazánk may achieve entry into parliament, their standing is precarious due to a +/- 1% margin of error. DK and MKKP have maintained this low popularity for three consecutive surveys, yet researchers believe DK stands a better chance of exceeding the 1% mark.
This polling data points towards a staggering electoral outcome: with a turnout near 80%, the Tisza Party might claim nearly 3,200,000 votes, while Fidesz could attract approximately 2,300,000 votes from registered Hungarian citizens. Such a voter count would represent a historical record in Hungarian electoral history.
In context, the Fidesz results fall short of the 2,800,000 votes secured in the 2022 elections (excluding mail ballots). Analysis from the 21 Research Center revealed that nearly 250,000 to 300,000 of Fidesz’s voters have passed away over the past four years, while recent years have seen minimal engagement from younger voters aged 18-22. Moreover, during the previous election, Fidesz was able to engage voters who were generally unsympathetic to their platform due to a successful campaigning strategy.
The center’s assessments suggest that the dramatic shift in voter preference stems more from the Tisza Party independently reaching roughly 700,000 additional voters than from a decline within Fidesz’s base.
The mandate calculator from the 21 Research Center estimates that the current projection would still not ensure a two-thirds victory for the Tisza Party, forecasting it to receive around 132 seats, Fidesz around 62 (including a national minority representative), and Mi Hazánk approximately 5 mandates. It’s important to note that these figures are broad estimates rather than precise projections, and many electoral districts remain highly competitive with minor differences likely influencing outcomes.
The mandate calculator considers potential scenarios where outcomes might be influenced by vote buying or voter manipulation in certain districts.
On the election day, voter turnout was notably high. As reported by the National Election Office, by 5 PM, 74.28% of eligible voters had cast their ballots, surpassing all previous records for turnout rates.
Daniel Róna, head of the 21 Research Center, will present the results live during the Telex election broadcast.
Methodology
The hybrid data collection took place between April 8 and 11, surveying 1,500 participants. Respondents received an SMS containing a link to an online questionnaire, while those aged over 65 were interviewed over the phone. This approach was consistent with the methodologies used in prior research related to European Parliament elections. The sample was weighted according to the 2022 Census data from KSH, stratifying by location, gender, age, and educational attainment, ensuring representativeness for the entire populace. The reported values are expected to vary with a margin of error of +/- 2.5 percentage points when generalized to the entire population. The margin of error could be larger for subgroups, but it is also smaller for smaller parties, with a party receiving 3% indicating +/- 1% margin of error.
